0% Chance?

About 8 days before the NYC Marathon, I checked the long range weather report. Pure folly, I know, but what it said caught my attention.

It said that there was a 0% chance of precipitation. Zero percent? Really. Do they know what that means? Is this like Wallace Shawn's "inconceivable!" in The Princess Bride? I'm with Inigo Montoya -- "You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means."

In my book, saying that there is a 0% percent chance means that it's just not going to happen. Yet three days later, there was a 40% chance of precipitation on marathon day. Huh.

To be fair, we all know that today's meteorologists would never claim that they could predict such a thing with certainty from 8 days out. So what DO they mean?

Here's my theory. Let's say you look out the window today, and it's cloudy. Is it going to rain? Maybe. Let's say there's a 40% chance, judging from the darkness of the clouds. Or, let's say the sky is blue -- no clouds in sight. Is going to rain? No way. Meteorologists have more to go on than what they see out the window, but they do the same thing. So, when they say 0% in 8 days, they mean they think it's going to be a clear day. 0% is not the chance that they are wrong. That, they do not publicize. 0% is just the chance that it will rain if they are right.

At any rate, the good news is that after a few days predicting rain, the forecast has returned to perfect. With the start 24 hours away, I'm feeling a little better about this claim of 0%.

Sun
Nov 1

Partly Cloudy

56°
45°

0%

Taper Madness

With the NYC Marathon 2 days away, I seem to be losing my mind.

Signs that I am suffering from "taper madness":

1. I can't walk down the street without feeling that I am going to step off a curb and sprain an ankle at any moment.
2. I worry about both not getting enough rest and getting out of shape. Yes, I can do both at once.
3. When a friend asked about going for a short run tomorrow, I responded that if I ran at all, it would just be to the Marathon starting line and back. She responded that she hoped I meant to the finish line and back (3 miles), not to the start and back (~40 miles).
4. I found this video of Anthony Edwards about running the marathon to be very funny. (FYI, Edward is actually planning to run).

14 days

The NYC Marathon is 14 days out. Time to look back at my training and see were I stand in comparison to previous years.

Mileage

Of the last 10 weeks, 8 have been over 50 miles. There were two down weeks, when I was nursing an irritated calf, but other than that, the milage was consistent.

During the comparable weeks in 2007 and 2008, I broke 40 miles only 4 times.

Long Runs

This year: 10 runs of 16 miles or more, maxing at 22.

In 2007, I had only 6, maxing at 20.

In 2008, only 3 runs of 16 miles or more.

Speed Work

This year, I cut back on speed work as the marathon date approached. I have kept up the tempo runs though, and they are faster and longer than in previous years.

No question, I'm in better shape for this marathon that I have ever been. All I have to do is get through the next two weeks without messing up, and it should be a fun race.

I can't wait.

How long is long?

The first time I trained for a marathon, it seemed that every training program I saw peaked at 20 miles. And those miles were meant to be run much slower than target marathon pace. It seemed odd.

What other race to you prep for without ever going the distance? This approach seems to be counting a LOT on race day magic. I mean, I'm going to run 20 miles much faster than I ever have, pop a GU and whip off an extra 6.2 for kicks?

This year, it seems like a lot more folks are peaking with 22 mile training runs. Today, I tried it for the first time. I have to say, it felt great. I ran with DW, who kept the pace moving, and we picked it up for the last mile.

As DW pointed out, there is a big psychological advantage to running 22 miles rather than 20, in that 4 miles feels like a lot less to "tack on" than 6.

After the run, I asked myself whether I could have gone another 4.2. The answer: "hells yeah".